MT 330
Marketing in the Technology Enterprise

Session 11:
Demand Analysis and Forecasting (I):
Forecasting Demand

In this session we explore the role of demand analysis in the technology   marketing process and the reasons why it is so crucial to the survival of the firm. We contrast two approaches to demand analysis, we introduce  the logit curve and discuss its uses and limitations, and suggest some
alternative curves that help us overcome these limitations, with the aid of @RISK.

Readings: ® = required; scan = read introduction and conclusions; scan inside pages;
                  (o) = optional; = Adobe Acrobat File.

Scan:

• Anderson, Philip and Michael L. Tushman, "Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Designs: A Cyclical Model of Technological Change," Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 35, 1990. Read pp. 604-613, 622-623. (Abstract in ProQuest)

• Moore, Geoffrey A., Inside the Tornado, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, chapter 2 ("Crossing the Chasm -- and Beyond"), 13-26.

Required for class discussion (®):

® Arthur, W. Brian, "Increasing Returns and the New World of Business," Harvard Business Review, July/Aug. 1996, v. 7, n. 4, 100-109.

Lecture Notes:

Demand Analysis and Forecasting (demand1.ppt)

Cellular Sales Forecast (spreadsheet model accompanying lecture notes)

Generic_Sales Forecast_Model (spreadsheet model for constructing your own sales forecast)

Discussion Question:

In Session 9, we debated whether more than three players can occupy any market. For this session, the question is whether in some markets, there can be only one. After reading the Brian article (and scanning the Anderson and Tushman article), would you say that the principle of increasing returns applies to all new technologies, only to some, or to none? How would you determine when the principle does apply to a new technology? (Feel free to use examples from your reading or experience.)

Marketing Plan:

• All: Complete through Section 5.
• This week's presenter: Post to Prometheus on Monday of this week. 
• Others: comment on this week's presentation.